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Sunday, January 29, 2006

Iran: Turning the Table on Their Nuclear Threat


"We have to keep the military option as the last option but not take it off the table," said U.S. Senator John McCain, a leading Republican presidential contender for the 2008 election.

In this statement reported by Reuters news service, echos a common statement that has been heard before about Iran. Iran should be paying attention, not so much for what is on the table but what is underneath, the contingency plans to knock their nuclear ambitions back to the stone age.

Oddly, and as usual, there is always the diplomatic dance. It follows a cadence of concern, then demands and possible sanctions. And that is followed by international cheating, bribery, and deceit. It doesn't work. It never has, but it is a respected ritual before pulling out the big stick.

And the planning of using that big stick has been in the works for years. There is a plan, and one morning we are going to be waking up to news reports with blistering video of strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The day is coming sooner, than later.

Public predictions of when Iran will develop a bomb are around the year 2009. Personally, I consider that date overly optimistic. It would not surprise me at all if Iran tested its first bomb by this September. They are enterprising and determined. When Iran took over the U.S. embassy after disposal of the Shaw, they proved their ingenuity by pasting together our shredded secret documents.

("Shredded documents can be reassembled even manually. After the Iranian Revolution and the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979, Iranians enlisted local carpet weavers, who, with patience developed in generations of tying 400 knots per inch, reconstructed the pieces by hand.") Wiki

Now, how a possible strike on Iran will unfold is up for speculation. Countries that may be directly or indirectly involved could be the United States, Israel, Great Britain, and France. In the past, the U S has shied away from accepting Israel as a co-partner in a military action. And, the U S may only provide a supporting role.

Still, this will not be an easy project if it is going to be effective. There are at least 50 targets that need to be destroyed and these targets are hardened. Necessity may dictate more that one player take an active role.

There will be repercussions. Iran will certainly take some action and lead the course to an unpredictable endgame. Iran does not have a straw military force.

But after all the diplomatic dancing is done, the music is sure to end with a crescendo of bombs tapping on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

To see a propaganda video of Iranian military strength go here.

To read all of our posts on Iran go here.

3 Comments:

At 11:27 PM, Blogger D L Ennis said...

Hi Bob, I just read your piece on Iran...it's very good! I'm with you, I think that they will have a bomb ready sooner than estimated and we will strike sooner than later. Well done!!!
DL

 
At 4:39 PM, Blogger Charlie said...

Great post Bob very detailed and thanks for the link do you think its psychological warfare at the moment, who’s going to blink first. Did you see the bit about poor Denmark a newspaper published a cartoon of Mohamed with a bomb in his turban? It’s caused quite a stir in the muslimworld.

 
At 5:06 PM, Blogger B O B said...

Hi D L and Charlie thanks for your comments. In a sense I wish it was pschological warfare. Back in 1981 Israel did a bombing run an Iranian nuclear reactor. I am not sure if many remember that.

This situation is more involved, with at least 50 targets, there has even been speculation that ground troops would be needed also to finish the job.

I think in the long run when all is said and done, the risk of letting Iran join the nuclear club is just too dangerous for the world in general.

It reminds me of Neville Chamberlain when he declared "peace in our time" after he met in Munich with Hitler in 1938. One year later Hitler was invading Poland. We should learn from history what these agreements are worth.

I have only glanced over the Denmark thing, and plan to look into it further. I think Denmark have gotten into spats before about their cartoons.

 

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